The Baltic Race - Kalinigrad VS Visaginas NPPs

On a recent referendum in Lithuania, that we already have been following here, the citizens were asked whether they support the close down of Ignalina nuclear power plant in 2009. The plant currently gives up to 70% of the total amount of energy in the country. The referendum, however, was not recognized as valid, since less then half of the voters participated (about 48%). Still, most of those who voted were against the shut down of Ignalina plant until the new plant, Visaginas NPP, 4 GWt in capacity, will be launched on the same site.
Still, the first block of Visaginas will not be launched before 2016, second - 2020. The construction is sponsored and performed by the 4 interested parties - Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Poland. The situation around the project still remains on the level of agreements and disagreements between these four. Moreover, the final project is not confirmed yet. Obviously, that will take some time.
On the other hand, Russians have already signed and confirmed the project of Baltijskaya NPP in Kaliningrad region, 2GWt in capacity, to be launched by 2015. The construction will be performed in cooperation with foreign companies, those interested in the project (for example, those from Czech republic). The project was also discussed with potential customers in Germany, Finland and Sweden.
Kaliningrad is a small enclave of Russia by the Baltic sea between Poland and Lithuania. By itself, it has no need for such a huge plant - most of its electricity needs are covered by a large heat station (ТЭЦ-1). The current electricity production in the region is about 500 MWt, and within a few years after the second block of heat station is launched, the figure will double.
What do we have finally in the Baltic region by mid-2010s? Here are some of my remarks on the base of Google Earth map of the area.



The yellow line shows the border of the European Union, green crosses - existing NPPs, red ones are planned, with approximate year of launching.
Once there will be 3 more nuclear power plants in the area - Visaginas (Lithuania), Baltijskaya (Kaliningrad, Russia) and the Belarusian one, the region might get overloaded with electricity generation capacities it does not actually need. This is when the competition for the export market might take place. The one who will be the first to occupy the niche of major electricity export supplier, will get hold of the local market and largest share of export. Ignalina closure will create a great shortage of electricity in Lithuania and the Baltic countries, and they will have to import it anyway until the new station is built. Even if that sounds politically "absurd" for some West-oriented politicians in the Baltic region, they will have to buy it from Russia - the neighboring EU countries do not have enough own capacities to supply one more country with 4 million population.
The question is whether Lithuania might also be able to use the electricity from Kaliningrad instead of building a huge own plant? From economical point of view, launching a huge plant when the local electric grids are already overloaded by cheap Russian and Belarusian energy, is a bit of an absurd. A nuclear power plant is less flexible then a heat plant when it comes to reducing the amount of energy produced when consumption is low. For an export-oriented plant, besides from the reactors itself, a huge infrastructure will be needed. In order to reach Sweden, there is a need of a transmitting line on the bottom of the Baltic sea. Again, here the Russian plant has more advantages from the point of location - their "Baltic bottom distance" will be a bit closer than that from Lithuania.
What we have now is Russian and Belarusian plants confirmed and ready for construction, and on the other side there is Ignalina about to be closed and some rumors about a new plant that the 4 countries did not yet agree upon. The one who wins the race will be the one who presses the start button on the new plant first.